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| Aadland, David; Caplan, Arthur J.. |
| We present a theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between anchoring bias, hypothetical bias, and cheap talk in constructed markets. In our theory, interviewers provide agents with signals such as cheap talk and bid values while eliciting the value for nonmarket goods. In response to these signals, agents revise their prior distributions over the value of the good. Previous empirical studies have failed to account for the interaction between cheap talk and anchoring during this updating process, leading researchers to incorrectly assess the effects of cheap talk in reducing hypothetical bias. In particular, we predict that cheap talk will appear to be more effective for relatively large bids. We test our theory in an experimental... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19568 |
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| Aadland, David; Bailey, DeeVon; Feng, Shelly. |
| This paper investigates the response of beef cattle producers to changes in the price of cattle. Previous research has suggested that there may be a negative short-run supply response to a permanent increase in the price of cattle. We build a dynamic, rational expectations model that predicts that the supply response is generally positive, even for permanent shocks in the short run, and nests the negative supply response as a special case for appropriately restricted demand shocks. Using annual US time series data (1930-1997) and a simultaneous-equations econometric approach, we find a positive short-run supply response in the cow market and mixed evidence in the heifer market. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21887 |
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| Aadland, David. |
| This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) allowing cow-calf operators to make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins, (2) formally recognizing the age distribution of the capital stock, and (3) considering a mixed scheme of rational and naive expectations. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19795 |
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| Aadland, David; Caplan, Arthur J.. |
| Two recent studies have shown that "cheap talk" is an effective means of eliminating positive hypothetical bias in experimental and field-auction settings. We further investigate the ability of cheap talk to mitigate positive hypothetical bias in a CVM phone survey administered to over 4,000 households. Positive hypothetical bias is detected in our data by contrasting revealed and stated preference information. However, a short, neutral cheap-talk script appears to exacerbate rather than mitigate the bias. Based on this and mixed evidence from earlier studies, we suggest caution in using cheap talk as an ex ante control for hypothetical bias. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22112 |
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| Aadland, David; Koplin, Van. |
| Successful formation and long-term stability of cooperative ventures is often linked to the perceived fairness of the cost and resource allocations that these ventures employ. Indeed, the lack of a consensus over what basis should be used for gauging equitable allocation can undermine the prospects for collaboration. We use irrigation cost sharing as a context for examining the equity basis selections of cooperative ventures that successfully form and endure. Our analysis reveals that these selections are explained by features of the cooperative environment and inequities in the derived benefits from the irrigation water. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Cost allocation; Equity; Probit model; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117146 |
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| Caplan, Arthur J.; Aadland, David; Macharia, Anthony. |
| This paper reports results from a contingent valuation based public good experiment conducted in the African nation of Botswana. In a sample of university students, we find evidence that stated willingness to contribute to a public good in a hypothetical setting is higher than actual contribution levels. However, results from regression analysis suggest that this is true only in the second round of the experiment, when participants making actual contributions have learned to significantly lower their contribution levels. As globalization expands markets, and economies such as Botswana’s continue to modernize, there is a growing need to understand how hypothetical bias will influence the valuation of public goods. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Hypothetical bias; Public good; Willingness to pay; Botswana; Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90836 |
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| Aadland, David; Anatchkova, Bistra; Grandjean, Burke; Shogren, Jason F.; Simon, Benjamin; Taylor, Patricia A.. |
| We report the findings of a unique nation-wide experiment to price access to our public lands. In 2004, the U.S. Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act mandated the creation of a new annual pass to cover all federal recreation sites that charge an entrance or access fee. Our task was to assist federal policymakers in determining an appropriate price for this new pass. Toward that end, we administered a contingent valuation phone survey to over 3700 households to estimate households willingness to pay (WTP) for the new pass at a variety of different prices. Our innovative experimental design allows us to estimate the degree of hypothetical bias in the sample and calibrate our WTP estimates to reflect actual purchasing decisions. In a sample of the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9789 |
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